How Small Cutbacks Lead to Great Savings
How Small Cutbacks Lead to Great Savings [INFOGRAPHIC] |
How Small Cutbacks Lead to Great Savings [INFOGRAPHIC]
Posted: 04 Jan 2013 04:00 AM PST |
Home Prices Could Jump in 2013, JP Morgan Says
Home Prices Could Jump 9.7% in 2013, J.P. Morgan Says
By Al Yoon
Home-price forecasts for 2013 are on the rise.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects U.S. home prices to rise 3.4% in its base-case estimate and up to 9.7% in its most bullish scenario of economic growth. Standard & Poor’s, which rates private-issue mortgage bonds, on Friday said it expects a 5% rise in 2013.
- AFP/Getty Images
The J.P. Morgan analysts boosted their base-case estimate from 1.5% after a convincing rise in the “net demand” for housing this year has surpassed 2 million homes for the first time since 2006, said John Sim, a strategist at the investment bank. Net demand is the pace of existing home sales minus the inventory of homes available for sale.
“Net demand has picked up a lot in 2012,” said Mr. Sim. “Once you get north of the 2 million territory, you are in the positive growth area unless you get a lot of distressed inventory, which this year hit a low point” since at least 2008, he added. J.P. Morgan predicts that net demand to rise from 2.7 million next year from 2.3 million this year.
An expected increase in home prices in 2012 triggered a run into some of the riskiest real estate assets, such as subprime mortgage-backed securities from the real estate boom, and analysts including Mr. Sim expect that trend to continue. Rising home prices and the quest for yield has also given a tailwind to new mortgage bond issuance that has been mired in the fallout of the housing crisis and regulatory uncertainty for the past four years.
U.S. home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3% in October, the biggest increase since June 2006, according to CoreLogic. Investors zoning in on the increases bought subprime mortgage bonds, which have posted returns of more than 40% since December.
Home price increases could exceed J.P. Morgan’s base forecast if investors seeking yield push deeper into real estate, according to Mr. Sim’s home price report.
That may already be happening, considering recent comments by Luke Scolastico, a vice president at Credit Suisse, one of two issuers of mortgage bonds without government backing since the financial crisis. Credit Suisse is increasing its purchases of jumbo loans to meet demand for securities it sees from investors, he said on an American Securitization Forum panel this week.
“We’re buying loans, every day…and (on the month,) more than the month before,” Mr. Scolastico said. Part of the reason is because of home price appreciation, but also because of the “technical demand” for relatively higher yielding assets as Federal Reserve policies depress interest rates, he said.
New mortgage bond sales from other issuers, including investment banks, could boost issuance of private label bonds this year as high as $30 billion, Mr. Sim said. That’s up from almost $5 billion this year but paltry compared with annual volume above $1 trillion generated as the housing bubble neared its breaking point in 2006.
Mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae still fund more than 90% of new home loans. Bank portfolios and other private lending make up the rest.
Considering risks, J.P. Morgan analysts conceded that the economy is “gloomy” and tight lending standards can stop a bullish homebuyer from proceeding with a purchase. On the supply side, the “shadow inventory” of more than four million homes near or stuck in foreclosure still looms, though that is dropping, the analysts said.
What’s more, just the uncertainty over whether politicians will be able to steer clear of the “fiscal cliff,” the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts next month, may hurt investor confidence, the J.P. Morgan analysts said.
If taxes rise, reduced income for the potential homebuyers will damp housing demand, they added.
But the expectations for higher home prices are still widespread. Nearly three-quarters of investors polled by J.P. Morgan expect home prices to rise 5% in 2013
Housing Year End Reports – Market is Coming Back
The KCM Blog – Housing: Year End Reports Reveal Market Coming Back |
Posted: 02 Jan 2013 04:00 AM PST
Existing Home Sales Report
Pending Sales Report
New Home Sales Report
Case Shiller Home Price Index
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Home Ownership as an Investment
Homeownership as an Investment |
Homeownership as an Investment
Posted: 12 Dec 2012 04:00 AM PST
However, since the subject of comparing real estate to other investments has come up, let’s take a closer look. There are two major advantages to investing in a home of your own rather than another option: You Can’t Live in Your IRAWhen you buy your own home you are not taking available dollars away from another investment. You are replacing one housing expense (rent) which has no potential for a return on investment with another (mortgage payment) that does give you an opportunity for a return. We realize that there has been research showing that over the last 30 years renting has been less expensive than owning. That research also says that if you invested the entire difference between the rent payment and mortgage payment you may have done better financially. There are two challenges with this conclusion:
Today,studies show that owning a home is no more expensive than renting a home. However, even if this wasn’t the case, history shows that owning a home creates greater wealth. Paying a mortgage creates what financial experts call ‘forced savings’. The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University released a study last year titled America’s Rental Housing: Meeting Challenges, Building on Opportunities. In the study, they actually quantified the difference in family wealth between renters and homeowners:
There Are Tremendous Tax Advantages to Investing in a HomeThere is no doubt that selling an investment such as gold is easier than selling your home. However, this liquidity comes at a price. The price is called capital gains. That is the tax you pay on any financial gain you receive from the investment. This tax doesn’t apply the same way when you sell your primary residence: Theresa Palagonia, a CPA and the Accounting Manager for the firm G.S. Garritano & Associates, was good enough to explain the Home Sale Exclusion Rules:
Bottom LineEvery investment has pros and cons. That is why there is such an assortment of great opportunities. Real Estate has been, is and always will be one of those opportunities. |
Barbara Corcoran says to Move-Up Buyers: DO IT NOW!
Barbara Corcoran to Move-Up Buyers: DO IT NOW!
Posted: 05 Dec 2012 04:00 AM PST “Right now, if you are upgrading to a bigger house, even if you’re selling at 10% off, you buy your new house at 10% off. Price appreciation is going to go much higher than people anticipate.” |
Top 10 Things I Learned this Weekend…
This is the 14th year that I’ve gone first season shotgun hunting for deer. We’ve had generally the same eclectic, safe, fun group the whole time. Deer season is just like the real estate business… there are never two deals or hunts exactly alike, its always changing.
So now, the Top 10 things I learned this year…
#10 – If you sit in the timber by yourself long enough, your mind will soon turn anything into a deer, including trees, weeds, rocks, branches…
#9 – There is a very fine line between having enough warm clothes on to sit in the timber for 2 hours & having on so many you sweat to death on the walk in or out.
#8 – Even though I don’t speak squirrel, I can still tell when I’m being chewed out by one.
#7 – Although I’m very happy its not 10 below, windy, freezing rain or waist deep in snow… 62 degrees & sunny might be a little too extreme the other way.
#6 – Walking through a patch of cockle burs is bad but worse is the moment you realize the only way out is to walk back thru them again.
#5 – Even Marley thinks I’m insane when I get up at 5:30am on a Sunday.
#4 – “The Big Deer” stories are just as good as “Big Fish” stories and they want seem to get better as the night goes on.
#3 – When I’m dressed in a blaze orange hat, vest & gloves on opening day of deer season and someone asks if I’m hunting, i really really want to reply… here’s your sign!
#2 – You just cant beat the rush of adrenaline you get when you can see the deer headed right to you.
#1 – Dressed in blaze orange, full of stickers, sweaty & smelly, smeared blood on my jeans and people still feel comfortable enough to ask me about real estate… I love my job!
Housing Inventory is Shrinking Across the Country
Housing Inventory Shrinking Across Country [INFOGRAPHIC]
Posted: 16 Nov 2012 04:00 AM PST |
Where Are Rents Headed?
Posted: 13 Nov 2012 04:00 AM PST
Rental prices usually increase by about 3 percent annually. Trulia just released their Trulia Rent Monitor where they revealed that rental prices have increased dramatically in the last year.
Based on the concept of supply and demand, we believe rental prices will continue to substantially increase over the next few years. The long-run 30-year average increase in rental households is 200,000 each year. Over the next few years, those numbers will more than double to over 500,000 each year. Freddie Mac in their latest report, Multifamily Research Perspectives, projects housing demand going forward.
The cost of owning a home will begin to increase as both prices and mortgage rates are expected to inch up in 2013. Perhaps now is the perfect time to lock in your long term housing expense by purchasing your own home. |
Cost vs. Price Explained
Cost vs. Price Explained
Posted: 07 Nov 2012 04:00 AM PST
Yesterday, we reported that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is projecting that mortgage interest rates will inch up over the next twelve months. On Monday, we explained that many experts are calling for home prices to also increase over the next year. What Does This Mean to a Buyer?Here is a simple demonstration of what impact certain changes would have on the mortgage payment of a home selling for approximately $200,000 today: |
National Housing Metrics
The KCM Blog – National Housing Metrics [INFOGRAPHIC]
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National Housing Metrics [INFOGRAPHIC]
Posted: 26 Oct 2012 04:00 AM PDT |