Last Friday, we ran an InfoGraphic from RealEstate.com that showed that the real estate market was coming back. Some objected that the information was from a survey of industry players that may have a natural bias. For the doubters, here is the cover of the latest edition of Money Magazine released this past weekend.

The magazine supported their case by explaining:

• In the last year, home prices increased in 92 of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas
• Homes are more affordable than they’ve been in 40 years
• The number of houses for sale is at the lowest level in a decade
• Price increases are projected for most of the country this year

It seems that even the unbiased realize that Housing is Back!

Last Friday, we ran an InfoGraphic from RealEstate.com that showed that the real estate market was coming back. Some objected that the information was from a survey of industry players that may have a natural bias. For the doubters, here is the cover of the latest edition of Money Magazine released this past weekend.

The magazine supported their case by explaining:

• In the last year, home prices increased in 92 of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas
• Homes are more affordable than they’ve been in 40 years
• The number of houses for sale is at the lowest level in a decade
• Price increases are projected for most of the country this year

It seems that even the unbiased realize that Housing is Back!

Many homeowners look back on 2006 house values and wonder why they didn’t sell at the height of the market. They lament the money they may have lost by not selling. However, there is another side to that story. If they did sell back in 2006, they would have still needed to live somewhere.

Looking back at the euphoria that permeated the real estate market at the time, many may have sold and moved into an even nicer, more expensive home. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, we can now calculate the financial consequences of such a move.

Let’s look at a house that would have cost $400,000 in 2006. For the sake of this example, we are going to assume that values in this region dropped 25% since. To compute total cost (principal and interest payment) we needed to research mortgage interest rates at the time also.

Here is the comparison: 

You saved over $1,100/month on your mortgage payment. Maybe it wasn’t horrible that you didn’t sell in 2006. Perhaps, it was a great decision!

Many homeowners look back on 2006 house values and wonder why they didn’t sell at the height of the market. They lament the money they may have lost by not selling. However, there is another side to that story. If they did sell back in 2006, they would have still needed to live somewhere.

Looking back at the euphoria that permeated the real estate market at the time, many may have sold and moved into an even nicer, more expensive home. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, we can now calculate the financial consequences of such a move.

Let’s look at a house that would have cost $400,000 in 2006. For the sake of this example, we are going to assume that values in this region dropped 25% since. To compute total cost (principal and interest payment) we needed to research mortgage interest rates at the time also.

Here is the comparison: 

You saved over $1,100/month on your mortgage payment. Maybe it wasn’t horrible that you didn’t sell in 2006. Perhaps, it was a great decision!

Ivy Zelman is an industry expert consistently recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine and The Wall Street Journal as an industry-leading analyst. What separates her from many other analysts is the fact that she has accurately called the real estate market continuously over the last decade.

Her Position in 2006

She was one of the first to call the burst of the housing bubble. She was nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for the harsh positions she took in combating the overly optimistic views of many in the industry at the time.

What happened next?

Existing home sales plummeted, new construction starts feel to historic lows and prices dropped by 50% in some areas of the country.

Her Position in 2012

Ivy Zelman, in a Wall Street Journal article in March Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back, projected that the real estate market was about to rebound and that home prices would begin to appreciate. She emphatically claimed:

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.”

What happened next?

Pending sales (homes going into contract) surged in May and have remained above what is recognized as a healthy market level ever since. Starting in June, home prices began to appreciate on a year-over-year basis. This continued through the rest of the year with yearend appreciation coming in at 6.8%.

Her Position Today

What is Ms. Zelman saying today? In an interview on CNBC, she said:

“I think we are in Nirvana for housing…I’m probably the most bullish I’ve ever been fundamentally…I think home prices could go up for four to six years…Today, the urgency and sentiment toward buying residential real estate is back.”

What will the future bring?

If Ms. Zelman’s past predictions are evidence of her understanding of the housing industry, it seems that real estate is about to make a dramatic comeback.

   

InfoGraphic